Early Asian trade Monday: Brent fell $1.06 (-0.96%) to $108.80, WTI $101.18, after Friday's sanctions waiver raised the prospect of more Russian fuel reaching market. But the follow-through is fuzzy: Trump told reporters "a lot of you don't know what my decision is yet," and Rubio says the waiver gets up to a 60-day review of economic impact. Reuters also notes the obvious ceiling — Ukraine is still burning Russian oil infrastructure (St. Petersburg terminal/depot), so extra export capacity on paper is not extra barrels. For your tank: last EIA print had national diesel at $6.18, down 35 cents from September's $6.53 record, with the Lower Atlantic cheapest at $5.65. Sources: Reuters — oil slips · Reuters — Rubio 60 days · Overdrive — diesel/EIA.

Released Sunday (surveyed Oct 9-13, 2,545 adults): 33% approve / 66% disapprove, 52% strongly disapprove — lowest of either term in this series, down from 37% in April/July. Fox News' Oct 14 poll pointed the same direction (his lowest there too), so it is not one pollster. Drivers in the numbers: about 3 in 4 disapprove on cost of living/inflation, economy approval 28%, Democrats now trusted more on the economy 40-33 (first time since 2014 in this series) and lead the generic House ballot by 8. Polls are a snapshot, not a result — but two rival poll shops agreeing on "record low" is a real signal. Sources: USA Today.

The facts both sides share: federal agents searched Rep. Ilhan Omar's DC home Oct. 12 in an immigration-fraud probe; no charges, no evidence publicly revealed. The dispute is narrow and old — whether she was 17 (automatic citizenship when her father naturalized in 2000) or 18 (would have needed her own application), hinging on a birth-year discrepancy (1981 vs. corrected 1982). Overnight move: border czar Tom Homan, asked Saturday if denaturalize-and-deport could follow, answered "of course — if you lie during naturalization, there's a process." Obama weighed in Sunday calling the probe an intimidation effort that "should outrage all Americans." Trump says the search "has nothing to do with me." Sources: CNN · Washington Examiner · The Guardian.

Sunday evening Canada released the names from Saturday's CFB Wainwright grass-fire disaster: Sgt. Morgan Wong and Privates Shaun Farrell, Aidan Goulding and Hayden Lykkemark. A fire burning about 1 km away during live training shifted in "uncommonly strong winds" and covered that distance in under a minute, per Maj. Gen. Rutland, who said he had never seen anything like it and that whether it was preventable is under investigation. PM Carney called it one of the worst peacetime tragedies in Canadian military history. No indication of terrorism; early gas-main theories are not supported by investigators so far. Sources: CNN · BBC.

Released Monday in Beijing: GDP +4.5% year-on-year, up from Q2's three-year low of 4.3%, beating the 4.4% forecast and sitting at the floor of Beijing's 4.5-5% target. The lift is chips/AI-hardware exports; the drag is home — property investment down about 20% in the first nine months, fixed-asset investment -7.2%, retail sales +1.1% in September. Trade surplus tracking to beat last year's record $1.2T. Read: the export engine works, domestic demand still does not. Sources: CNN · BBC.