Evening wire · Sunday 10/25

What moved today.

01

Serbia: Vučić concedes defeat — Student List projected 135–140 seats, ending 12 years of his rule

Concession, not a certified count. Reuters: Vučić said Sunday, on a stratified sample, it is clear that we have lost these elections — Student List 135–140 of 250 seats, his list ~105, majority is 126. An Ipsos/CeSID projection put the Student List at 52.0% / 138 seats vs 39.3% / 104. Turnout by 7pm was 67.9%, up 12 points on 2023 (CRTA). The snap vote followed almost two years of protests after the Nov 2024 Novi Sad canopy collapse killed 16. Flag: the official RIK count was still partial tonight and early partial tallies pointed the other way — the concession and the projection agree, the final numbers do not exist yet. Vučić blamed a revolution fuelled by European countries and the deep American state and said he will not flee. Sources: Reuters · Reuters via KRRO · The Times.

02

California ballots: 9th Circuit panel sounded skeptical of DOJ's bid to set aside 20,000 ballots

Rare Sunday argument, no ruling yet. Reuters: two of three judges sharply questioned the DOJ lawyer; Judge Bennett (Trump appointee) said the suit cannot be reconciled with the Constitution's Elections Clause, which leaves election processes to the states. DOJ sued Oct. 15 to force California to segregate ballots from ~20,000 people flagged as likely noncitizens and not count them until citizenship is verified, then leapfrogged District Judge Carter (hearing still Tue Oct. 27) with an emergency appeal. California calls the flagging process slipshod — state officials say a sample check found 1 in 4 on the list were U.S.-born (per Democracy Docket's summary of the state position — treat as the state's claim, not a verified audit). Sources: Reuters via 93.5 The Lloyd · Democracy Docket.

03

Tallahassee / FAMU shooting: 6 still hospitalized Sunday, 1 critical, no arrests — youngest victim 11

Update on Saturday night's shooting near Bragg Memorial Stadium after the homecoming game. Tallahassee police Sunday: 12 injured — 11 by gunfire, 1 hurt fleeing; 6 adults, 6 juveniles. Five have been discharged, six remain hospitalized, one in critical condition; no deaths reported. A fight preceded the gunfire, per the preliminary investigation. No arrests as of Sunday. FAMU coach Quinn Gray urged anyone with information to call the Perry Street hotline 850-891-4610 or Crime Solvers 850-574-TIPS. The university says campus itself remained safe. Sources: Reuters · NBC News via News9 · Tallahassee Democrat.

04

France: Le Pen formally launches her presidential bid in Orléans — 'zero tolerance' is the pitch

The day after the second protest Saturday, the political move was Le Pen's. Reuters: at the National Rally congress in Orléans Sunday she promised to restore order and national confidence — zero tolerance policing, restored border controls, automatic expulsion of foreign criminals. A poll published Sunday put her at 32–33.5%, ahead of Mélenchon at 17%; Politico's Poll of Polls has her at 34%. Bardella told the hall France is plunging into real violence. The counter-frame came the same day: Socialist leader Olivier Faure said the RN carries a heavy responsibility for the Trappes attack for creating a climate of invasion / great-replacement talk. Macron has called Trappes a racist terrorist attack. Sources: Reuters via 98.5 The River · Politico via Mingooland.

05

Audi Georgia plant: announced Saturday — $4.2B, ~4,500 jobs, but construction is 2027, not 'next month'

Yesterday's expected announcement happened — with two numbers to keep separate. AP: Trump announced at the Perry, Georgia rally that Audi will invest $4.2 billion near Macon for its first U.S. plant, 200,000 SUVs a year (Q7/Q8/Q9 per Reuters' official), plus ~25,000 vehicles a year at VW's Scout plant in South Carolina. Audi's own release: ~4,500 jobs, construction starting 2027, production early 2030s. Trump said construction could begin next month and, per CNN's rally account, spoke of 30,000 jobs — neither matches Audi's release. Audi CEO Döllner joined him on stage and called it a long-term bet on the U.S. market; Trump credited tariffs, which Audi says cost it ~$1.4B last year. Sources: AP via KXL · CNN · NY Post.

Quick hits

Paris NFL game: Steelers beat the Saints 16–10 in the NFL's first regular-season game in France — 78,488 at Stade de France, Rodgers' TD pass moved him past Peyton Manning to 3rd all-time. The game went ahead the day after the protests. USA Today · New Orleans Saints
Brazil runoff — counting, not called: polls closed 5pm Brasília (4pm ET). With only 0.25% of sections counted, Lula led the counted votes 57.7% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 42.3% — a tiny, unrepresentative slice. Remember the first round flipped as regions reported; do not read this as a result. Depor / TSE live
Early vote: ~26.8 million ballots cast nationally as of Oct. 25 (tracker compilation of state/county offices), up from ~21 million on Oct. 23 (NPR / UF Election Lab). In party-reporting states, registered Democrats are 43.5% of early voters, Republicans 31.1% — that is who has voted, not how they voted. On Point Politics tracker · NPR Illinois
Florida / trucking — clarification, dated Oct. 21, not new today: the dyed-diesel penalty waiver (Oct. 1–Dec. 31) waives penalties only — federal excise tax is still owed, and state rules are unchanged (Transport Topics, citing Holland & Knight). No new Florida trucking rule or enforcement move found Sunday. Transport Topics
World Series: Brewers lead the Rays 2–0; Game 3 is Monday Oct. 26 in Tampa Bay. No game Sunday.
Propaganda read

Serbia: the concession is the strongest signal — incumbents do not concede on samples they expect the count to reverse — but watch the gap between Vučić's sample (Student List ahead big) and RIK's early partial tally (his list ahead): both are real numbers measuring different slices, and each camp will quote the one it needs until the count finishes. California: DOJ frames dilution by noncitizens, California frames a slipshod federal list and intimidation; the verifiable move today is judicial — a Trump-appointed judge invoking the Elections Clause against DOJ. Audi: strip the rally numbers and keep Audi's own — $4.2B and ~4,500 jobs are company-stated; 30,000 jobs and 'construction next month' are rally-stated and conflict with the company's 2027 start. France: Le Pen sells order after a chaotic fortnight, Faure sells causation (RN rhetoric → Trappes) — the second is an argument, not an established link; no organisation link for the shooter has been established. Brazil: a 0.25% count is a screenshot, not a trend.

Point at anything and I'll go deep.