Evening wire · Thursday 10/15

What moved today.

01

PPI blew past CPI — wholesale prices up 1.3% in September, diesel at the center

BLS said Thursday that producer prices rose 1.3% in September — the biggest monthly gain since March 2022 — and 6.3% over the year, well above the 0.6% / 5.5% forecasts. Goods rose 2.6%, energy drove most of it, gasoline in the PPI basket jumped sharply, and BLS linked nearly half the rise in intermediate goods to diesel. Core PPI (ex food, energy and trade) rose 0.5% on the month, 5.0% on the year in one cut, 0.7% / 5.0% in the final-demand core cut — either way, hotter. Retail sales told the other half: headline +0.8% beat forecasts, but ex-gas and ex-autos-and-gas it was only +0.2%, statistically flat — the gain was fuel stations, not broad spending. Markets rotated instead of crashing: Dow +1.08% to 52,178, S&P 500 +0.33% to 7,744, Nasdaq +0.08%, while AI / chip names kept sliding on debt worries and the 10-year fell to 5.09%. FedWatch odds for an October hike sat in the high-20s to mid-30s depending on the snapshot, with a December hike now heavily priced. Sources: Transport Topics / AP · WSJ markets · Reuters retail sales via Northland · Investopedia.

02

Trump cancels the Hasan execution livestream — firing squad on Dec. 3 stays

President Trump said Thursday the Dec. 3 firing-squad execution of Nidal Hasan will not be livestreamed, overruling Defense Secretary Hegseth's plan. Hasan killed 13 and wounded 32 at Fort Hood in 2009. Trump said streaming might have been a deterrent but many people did not want to watch him die; victims' immediate families may still attend in person. Reuters reported the White House was not aware of the livestream plan before Hegseth announced it. Opposition was bipartisan — Vance and Speaker Johnson voiced doubts, religious leaders objected, and an ABC / Washington Post / Ipsos poll Thursday put public opposition at about 80%, including 64% of Republicans. The Pentagon said Hegseth supports the decision. Sources: Reuters via WNCY · USA Today · CNN.

03

Ukraine ends its refinery pause — Ryazan hit as the Washington fight deepens

Ukrainian drones hit a refinery in Russia's Ryazan region early Thursday, starting a fire about 180 miles southeast of Moscow, Russian officials and a senior Ukrainian official confirmed to AP. Zelenskyy said the brief energy truce was over after Russia kept pounding Ukrainian energy sites despite Trump's Sunday call for both sides to stop. Moscow said Ukraine never really stopped, and Foreign Minister Lavrov called the renewed strikes a direct challenge to Trump. The strike lands on top of this week's Starshield / intelligence dispute — Kyiv is signalling it will not hold fire unilaterally while its own grid is hit. Sources: AP via NPR Illinois · NBC News.

04

Hormuz attacks at a war high — 10 vessels since Sunday — yet oil still moves, unevenly

Security data reported Thursday count at least 10 vessels targeted in or near Hormuz since Sunday — six on Sunday alone, the highest single day of the war — and 23 attacks since Oct. 1, roughly double the monthly average. Greek monitor Marisks warned Thursday the risk is indiscriminate — flag, cargo, direction or turning off tracking does not protect a ship. The flow picture is split and volatile, not a clean shutdown: tanker trackers cited by the New York Post put October flow averaging above 12 million barrels a day, with about 19 million on Monday per CENTCOM, while Kpler data in the same report showed Wednesday's flow collapsing to roughly a tenth of last Thursday's ~23 million barrels. Read it as: ships still run for the money, day-to-day transits swing violently after attacks. Sources: AFP / Vanguard data via Balitang Marino · CNN · New York Post.

05

Trucking / Florida fuel: IRS dyed-diesel penalty is off Oct. 1–Dec. 31 — but the tax is deferred, not forgiven

The IRS announcement reported Wednesday implements the Oct. 5 executive order: no federal penalty for selling or using dyed (red) diesel on highways nationwide, retroactive to Oct. 1 through Dec. 31, with inspections and the usual recordkeeping suspended for the window. The catch trucking groups are flagging, and KPMG spells out: the underlying federal excise tax is deferred, not erased — Treasury is only exploring forgiveness, further guidance on Form 720 is still coming, dye left in tanks is a Jan. 1 penalty risk, and state rules vary state to state. Florida's own DOR move is narrower — emergency authorization from Oct. 6 for dyed diesel for farming / agricultural transport only, not general commercial hauling. Price context: Florida diesel averaged $6.07 on Oct. 14, up 67% from a year ago; nationally Fleet Advantage put diesel at $6.40 Thursday, and EIA distillate stocks fell 2.5 million barrels to 102.6 million, 12% below the five-year average. Sources: KPMG on IRS relief · Bloomberg Law — IRS · Bloomberg Law — Florida DOR · White House EO.

Quick hits

Senate judges blitz: Reuters reported Thursday Senate Republicans plan two Judiciary hearings in the two-week November post-election session — Nov. 10 and Nov. 18 — to push six-plus Trump nominees to December floor votes before a possible flip. Durbin objected it breaks committee practice. Reuters
Florida social-media law back on: an 11th Circuit panel ruled 3-0 Wednesday Florida's under-14 social-media ban is likely constitutional — it targets addictive features, not content — lifting the block. Enforcement timing is still unclear; the case returns to Tallahassee federal court. FOX 13 Tampa
Florida vouchers: the State Board of Education approved Oct. 14, on its consent agenda, a rule barring voucher funds for schools affiliated with groups the state designates as terror organizations — in practice hitting schools tied to CAIR. First Amendment challenges are expected. Tallahassee Democrat
Isaias / Escambia: Escambia County says it has met the FEMA Public Assistance damage threshold — about $64 million in county damage — but as of Thursday no presidential disaster declaration had been requested by Gov. DeSantis or signed. Individual Assistance assessments are still running; Santa Rosa counted 80-plus destroyed structures as of Oct. 14. Pensacola News Journal
COLA reality check: SSA's 3.6% COLA for 2027 was announced Wednesday; Thursday Florida coverage put it against Oct. 14 state averages — regular gas $4.20 (+42% year ago) and diesel $6.07 (+67%) — which is why retiree groups say the raise does not cover Florida fuel, insurance and medical costs. Daytona News-Journal · USA Today
Pakistan: a school roof collapse killed at least 28 children and one teacher, CNN reported Thursday. No U.S. angle yet — filed as a major world casualty item only. CNN
Propaganda read

Both rotations agree on the underlying fact — fuel is driving inflation again — and split on the remedy story. The right rotation (Examiner, Daily Caller via Rantingly: wholesale inflation spikes to highest in 4 years) frames dyed-diesel and Russian-diesel relief as action; the left rotation (NPR / ProPublica spine, Politico wire) frames the same moves as a deferred tax and a sanctions workaround that analysts say will not move pump prices soon. On Hasan, the split collapsed: livestream opposition ran from Vance and Johnson to religious leaders and 80% of the public — Rantingly amplified the execution itself, not the streaming. Treat any claim that red diesel is now simply free / legal savings as the propaganda layer — federal penalty is paused, tax is deferred, Florida relief is ag-only, and other states differ.

Point at anything and I'll go deep.